Why Low Seeds Continue To Pull Upsets In The NCAA tourney

The NCAA basketball tournament field has now been released. Folks nationwide, myself included,  have been filling out their brackets,  trying to predict the upsets and have a good bracket for different contests,  pools and such.

And there will be a few upsets. They always are, and probably always will.

There are these hungry,  mid-major teams, and even low seeded teams in power conferences that get hot and rise to the occasion.  I have written before about Cinderella teams and recently how to analyze and pick some of these upsets.

Here is why you will always have upsets in the tourney

1. Matchups

These can come from players with more depth,  experience and ability.  They aren't relying on a player or two to carry them. They are a team in every sense. Also, it comes down to coaching in the later rounds. Some coaches simply know how to get the best out of their own players and exploit the opponent's weakness. Often this can be a veteran coach whose team wasn't highly touted coming in, or an up and coming coach who is getting his shot. The matchups are thus key.

2. Schedule

Some teams simply play a more brutal schedule.  Think Kansas, Michigan,  Michigan State, or North Carolina,  in comparison to Wichita State. The talent may be equal, but the experience of facing tough competition every week helps in a one and done,  tournament scenario.

3. Experience and leadership

There are teams that didn't have a bunch of players jump to the NBA after a season or two. They stayed and have gathered a lot of chemistry, especially in the tournament. These are the ones that may not do much during the regular season,  but can thrive during a six game stretch on a neutral court. 

4. The Selection Committee

Sometimes I wonder if the people putting together these brackets even watches basketball anymore.  One really has to watch from Midnight Madness, on into the conference tournaments, and not just look at stats and computer data.  This causes some teams to be seeded too high, and other teams to be seeded lower. The lower seeds then have a chip on their shoulder, and do their talking on the court. 

5. Lots at stake for players and coaches. 

Not only do the tournaments bring the schools money, they give both players and coaches alike exposure, especially the smaller, mid-major schools. You have underrated players trying to get noticed by pro scouts, and coaches trying to pad their resumes and get a bigger time, higher paying job. This causes more hunger and grit against teams filled with high school All-Americans.  The emotion spills from players and coaches,  and you have more exciting games.

So why do you think there are so many upsets in college basketball during the NCAA tournament?

NCAA Tournament Bracket Picking Tips

It's almost that time of year again: March Madness! The brackets will be released with the 68 teams vying for the national championship.  This year, many are vying for more. Billionaire Warren Buffett is offering a billion dollars to whomever can pick a perfect bracket. It's a rare and difficult feat, as so many upsets happen. 

I wrote a while back how exciting the Cinderella teams make the tournament.  However, it can be quite frustrating for those whose bracket may be busted. 

Here are some tips for someone who has picked the champion a few times, and even picked the entire West Region correct once, upsets included.

1. A 16 has never beaten a 1 seed

This could be the year it happens, especially with the way the prospective #1 seeds have been playing as of late.  However, don't count on it though.  You can go ahead and safely pass the #1 seeds into the next round. 

2. All four #1 seeds rarely make the Final Four.

It has happened a couple of times, and may happen again this year.  However, analyze your matchups carefully, and don't just assume that the four #1s are gonna cruise through their respective regions.

3. Watch certain matchups for upsets and bracket busters.

Every year a #12 seed beats a #5, and a #10 beats a #7. The 6s vs 11s are also ones to watch.  Analyze the teams, their schedules and such, and see which ones are most likely to fall.

4. Look at all intangibles

This includes: how close to home they are playing, their last 10 games, strength of schedule, conference, coaching and overall leadership on each team. The veterans typically rise up and play better, especially the second weekend.  People are already discounting Wichita State due to their watered down schedule for example. However they have a lot of veteran, hungry players and an awesome coach in Gregg Marshall, whom I know well. Other coaches such as Boeheim, Donovan, Calipari and Coach K will have their teams ready to play. The individual and potential matchups are key. 

5. Pay attention to big wins by mid major schools

The mid major schools such as Wichita are typically the most exciting to watch, and the ones with the most to gain and the least to lose. Do a little research and see how they performed this season against the power conferences, and even last year in the tourney. These are the teams that can mess up a bracket. VCU, Gonzaga, Creighton and others will not be a slouch for any teams.

Ok now bring on the brackets! I hope I can help someone win their office pool, tournament pick em group, or even that billion dollars.

What are some tips that have helped you in your past brackets?